Leading Index YoY stands at 0.71% as of July 2026, up from -3.52% a year earlier. The reading sits in the 31st percentile of its history back to 1960.
| Latest (July 2026) | 0.71% |
| One year ago | -3.52% |
| 10-year range | -10.64% – 12.50% |
| All-time range | -18.94% (2009) – 14.70% (1983) |
| Standing | Highest since 2022 |
| Change over 12 months | +4.2 pts |
| Percentile vs. full history | 31st |
| History | 1960–2026 (799 observations) |
Year-over-year change in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, a composite of ten forward-looking inputs (claims, new orders, building permits, yield spread, and more). Sustained negative readings have preceded every U.S. recession by roughly 6-12 months, though with occasional false alarms.
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<a href="https://www.tacticalassetallocation.com/charts/leading-economic-index/">Leading Index YoY — Cambria Chart Lab</a>