Leading Index YoY stands at -1.72% as of May 2026, up from -3.88% a year earlier. The reading sits in the 22nd percentile of its history back to 1960.
| Latest (May 2026) | -1.72% |
| One year ago | -3.88% |
| 10-year range | -10.64% – 12.50% |
| Percentile vs. full history | 22nd |
| History | 1960–2026 (797 observations) |
Year-over-year change in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, a composite of ten forward-looking inputs (claims, new orders, building permits, yield spread, and more). Sustained negative readings have preceded every U.S. recession by roughly 6-12 months, though with occasional false alarms.
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<a href="https://www.tacticalassetallocation.com/charts/leading-economic-index/">Leading Index YoY — Cambria Chart Lab</a>