Unemployment Rate stands at 4.10% as of July 2026, down from 4.30% a year earlier. The reading sits in the 20th percentile of its history back to 1948.
| Latest (July 2026) | 4.10% |
| One year ago | 4.30% |
| 10-year range | 3.40% – 14.80% |
| All-time range | 2.50% (1953) – 14.80% (2020) |
| Change over 12 months | −0.2 pts — peaked at 4.50% in 2025 |
| Percentile vs. full history | 20th |
| History | 1948–2026 (942 observations) |
The headline unemployment rate. A lagging indicator on the way down but a powerful signal on the way up: increases of half a percentage point from the cycle low (the basis of the Sahm Rule) have reliably marked recession starts.
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<a href="https://www.tacticalassetallocation.com/charts/unemployment-rate/">Unemployment Rate — Cambria Chart Lab</a>
Data: download CSV (source: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)).