5Y Breakeven stands at 2.30% as of August 28, 2026, down from 2.49% a year earlier. The reading sits in the 70th percentile of its history back to 2003.
| Latest (August 28, 2026) | 2.30% |
| One year ago | 2.49% |
| 10-year range | 0.14% – 3.59% |
| All-time range | -2.24% (2008) – 3.59% (2022) |
| Change over 12 months | −0.2 pts — peaked at 2.72% in 2026 |
| Percentile vs. full history | 70th |
| History | 2003–2026 (5919 observations) |
The 5-year breakeven inflation rate: the inflation rate that would make 5-year nominal Treasuries and 5-year TIPS equally profitable, i.e. the bond market's priced-in inflation expectation. Rising breakevens signal markets expect hotter inflation.
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<a href="https://www.tacticalassetallocation.com/charts/5-year-breakeven-inflation/">5Y Breakeven — Cambria Chart Lab</a>
Data: download CSV (source: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)).