10Y-2Y Curve stands at 0.42% as of July 15, 2026, down from 0.55% a year earlier. The reading sits in the 35th percentile of its history back to 1976.
| Latest (July 15, 2026) | 0.42% |
| One year ago | 0.55% |
| 10-year range | -1.08% – 1.59% |
| Percentile vs. full history | 35th |
| History | 1976–2026 (12526 observations) |
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread. Inversion (below zero) has preceded every recession of the last half-century, typically by 12-24 months, as markets price future rate cuts. Re-steepening from inversion often coincides with the downturn itself.
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<a href="https://www.tacticalassetallocation.com/charts/10-year-2-year-treasury-spread/">10Y-2Y Curve — Cambria Chart Lab</a>
Data: download CSV (source: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)).