S&P 500 vs 10-Month MA (%) stands at 6.44% as of July 2026, down from 7.50% a year earlier. The reading sits in the 64th percentile of its history back to 1871.
| Latest (July 2026) | 6.44% |
| One year ago | 7.50% |
| 10-year range | -13.88% – 16.54% |
| All-time range | -45.91% (1932) – 46.59% (1933) |
| Change over 12 months | −1.1 pts — peaked at 11.50% in 2025 |
| Percentile vs. full history | 64th |
| History | 1871–2026 (1858 observations) |
The S&P 500's percentage distance from its 10-month moving average — the classic trend-following signal popularized in tactical asset allocation research. Above zero is an uptrend (historically ~70% of months, with the bulk of equity returns); below zero is a downtrend, where most major drawdowns have occurred.
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<a href="https://www.tacticalassetallocation.com/charts/sp500-trend-10-month-moving-average/">S&P 500 vs 10-Month MA (%) — Cambria Chart Lab</a>