S&P 500 vs 10-Month MA (%) stands at 4.79% as of June 2026, down from 6.29% a year earlier. The reading sits in the 53rd percentile of its history back to 1871.
| Latest (June 2026) | 4.79% |
| One year ago | 6.29% |
| 10-year range | -13.88% – 16.54% |
| Percentile vs. full history | 53rd |
| History | 1871–2026 (1857 observations) |
The S&P 500's percentage distance from its 10-month moving average — the classic trend-following signal popularized in tactical asset allocation research. Above zero is an uptrend (historically ~70% of months, with the bulk of equity returns); below zero is a downtrend, where most major drawdowns have occurred.
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<a href="https://www.tacticalassetallocation.com/charts/sp500-trend-10-month-moving-average/">S&P 500 vs 10-Month MA (%) — Cambria Chart Lab</a>