Serbia's macro tailwinds score stands at 44/100 as of February 2026 — a reading of how supportive its macro backdrop is for investors, built from inflation momentum, policy direction, currency valuation, external balance, commodity terms of trade, and equity valuation.
44 / 100 macro tailwinds · as of February 2026
Growth (excl.): n/aInflation: FallingPolicy: n/aFX Valuation: n/aExternal: StrainedCommodities: ImprovingValuation: n/a
| Real GDP growth (2026e) | 2.8% |
| CPI inflation (2026e) | 5.2% |
| Current account, % of GDP (2026e) | -5.7% |
| Gov debt, % of GDP (2026e) | 42.6% |
The tailwinds score condenses Serbia's macro backdrop into a single 0–100 reading: six pillars (inflation momentum, policy direction, currency valuation, external balance, commodity terms of trade, equity valuation) are each computed as a rolling z-score against the country's own 15-year history, averaged and mapped through the normal CDF. It measures how supportive conditions are — easing policy, a cheap currency, and disinflation lift the score — not how healthy the economy is; recessions with aggressive easing can score high. Countries missing a data series run on fewer pillars, and a score is only shown when at least three are live. Growth readings are shown for context but excluded from the score: in out-of-sample testing, reported growth did not predict subsequent returns. Data: IMF, BIS, OECD, World Bank, and national statistical agencies. Full methodology, including how it was validated and the tests that failed.